Thursday, October 27, 2011

SDS Daily Update for Thursday, October 27, 2011

So - Everything's Okay Now, Right?

I hadn't planned on blogging tonight.  Beavis and Butthead returned to the airwaves this evening after a several year hiatus (awesome!), the Texas Rangers are up  6-4 in the top of the seventh inning, and the University of Miami is mounting a comeback against the University of Virginia (Go Canes!).  But there's a few things I wanted to mention tonight.

First, to hear the financial media tell it, we are officially out of the financial mess we were in.  today's massive rally in the Dow came on somewhat higher volume .  While this is not a bad sign, you would hope to see such a rally with a massive amount of shares being purchased.  We did not see that today.  Thus, I remain skeptical of the current uptrend.  The amount of volatility we've experienced over the last three months signals to me that the market is simply unhealthy. 

Add to that the fact no one, except for perhaps the New York Times, is discussing the fact the EU agreement does nothing to address the Italian situation.  Or the Portugal situation.  Or Spain's situation, for that matter.  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, whom I criticized earlier this week, pulls himself out of the ditch with tonight's analysis in which he drives this point home far better than I ever could.  The "Grecian Vortex," to use his term, is quite apropos. 

The GDP numbers came in for the quarter as well, at a 2.5%  pace.  As one commentator described it, it's like your kid who usually makes Ds and Fs in school bringing home a C.  It's an improvement, but not nearly enough to demonstrate a meaningful change.  And jobless claims remained above 400,000 this week.

I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me, with objective data, why we're out of the woods. 

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